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Year-End Hike Expectations Nudge Higher Ahead Of Solid Docket

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes see little change overnight for near-term meetings (51bp Jun, 100bp Jul) but have ticked higher further out with 140bps for Sep and 192bp to year-end.
  • Bostic ('24 voter) told MarketWatch that his suggestion from last week to take a September "pause" should not be construed as a "Fed put", although those prior comments preceded Waller (voter) arguing for 50bp hikes at ‘several’ meetings.
  • Fedspeak: Williams (voter) makes opening remarks with text at 1130ET before Bullard (’22 voter) discusses the economic and policy outlook with text and Q&A incl. media at 1300ET.
  • Data: ISM mfg eyed at 1000ET with consensus for 54.5 from 55.4. Regional Fed surveys imply some notable downside risk although the flash PMI, whilst seeing a larger monthly fall held a higher level (with European PMIs since revised slightly higher for what it’s worth). JOLTS openings to unemployed also of note after repeated mention by various FOMC members.

Source: Bloomberg

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