Azerbaijan's Aliyev Secures Win, Signalling Policy Continuity

In a result that was widely anticipated, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has secured a fifth consecutive term in office following the snap election on 7 Feb. With 93.3% of the votes counted, Aliyev has secured 92.1% support, with Western media reportingthat questions have been raised about the free and fair conduct of the polls. Alivyev moved the election up from 2025, likely to take advantage of a surge in popularity after Azerbaijan's forces retook the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023 after three decades of Armenian control.

• Azerbaijan will be in the international spotlight later on in 2024, with the capital Baku due to host the COP29 UN climate change summit in November.
• Broad policy continuity could prove beneficial for the prospect of any long-term gas deals with Europe, which Aliyev is seen as keen to foster. In late-2023, Bloomberg reported that natural gas exports to Europe "will rise to 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) this year from 8 bcm in 2021, showing Azerbaijan is “confidently moving toward the goal” of doubling supplies by 2027, Aliyev said "
• BBG: Azerbaijan "agreed last year with the European Commission to increase its volumes to 20 bcm over the next five years. It was approached by more than 10 European nations for gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but discussions have been inconclusive, Bloomberg has reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter."