CIBC and Scotia Ahead Of BoC Surveys

Ahead of the BoC's quarterly BOS/CSCE surveys at 1030ET, both CIBC and Scotia note some issues with the surveys but nevertheless advise some important points to watch.

• CIBC: The BoC is a bigger fan of its BOS than we think is warranted given its small and varying sample of firms each quarter, but it will be interesting to see the impacts of developments like higher interest rates and softer gasoline prices in the survey of consumer expectations.

• Scotia: The BoS will be somewhat stale as the small sample covered roughly mid-Nov to early Dec and a lot has happened since then. Nevertheless, businesses expected inflationary pressures will be important in terms of how expectations influence BoC policy.
• The BoC’s CSCE may be of an even older vintage as the prior year’s sample covered Nov 11th –24th. Nevertheless, also watch what happens to expected price pressures given the pattern of consumers expecting persistent inflation above the BoC’s 2% target throughout the next five years.