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Egyptian NOTAM Spikes Speculation About Iranian Response To Israel

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There has been significant speculation on social media that a NOTAM(Notice to Air Missions) issued by Egypt instructing its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace for a three-hour period between 02:00-05:00 BST may hint that an Iranian response to Israel could come during those hours.

  • The NOTAM reads: "All Egyptian carriers shall avoid overflying Tehran (Flight information Region) FIR. No flight plan will be accepted overflying such territory."
  • Reuters notes: "Many airlines are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese air space while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon as many fear a possible broader conflict after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah."
  • OPSGROUP, a membership-based organisation that shares flight risk information, quoted by Reuters said: "Such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason."
  • The National reported on Monday that, "Egypt has turned down an Israeli request to join a group of countries to defend it against a possible retaliatory attack by Iran or its regional proxies," according to sources.
  • Note: There have been no formal statements from Egypt, Israel, or Western allies of Israel acknowledging or providing an explanation for the NOTAM, so the reports should be treated with caution.
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There has been significant speculation on social media that a NOTAM(Notice to Air Missions) issued by Egypt instructing its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace for a three-hour period between 02:00-05:00 BST may hint that an Iranian response to Israel could come during those hours.

  • The NOTAM reads: "All Egyptian carriers shall avoid overflying Tehran (Flight information Region) FIR. No flight plan will be accepted overflying such territory."
  • Reuters notes: "Many airlines are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese air space while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon as many fear a possible broader conflict after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah."
  • OPSGROUP, a membership-based organisation that shares flight risk information, quoted by Reuters said: "Such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason."
  • The National reported on Monday that, "Egypt has turned down an Israeli request to join a group of countries to defend it against a possible retaliatory attack by Iran or its regional proxies," according to sources.
  • Note: There have been no formal statements from Egypt, Israel, or Western allies of Israel acknowledging or providing an explanation for the NOTAM, so the reports should be treated with caution.