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REPEAT:MNI Fed's Bullard:Hikes Should Follow Data Surprises

(MNI) WASHINGTON
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 15:06 GMT Feb 26/10:06 EST Feb 26
--No Need for Aggressive Rate Increases; Rates Should Stay About Where They Are
--Can Wait to React to Jump in Investment In Low-Infl Environment
--Recent Stock Selloff 'Relatively Benign'
By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Jim Bullard
said Monday further interest rate increases should be in reaction to data
surprising to the upside in today's environment of low inflation, low
productivity growth and low labor force growth. 
     "I've been a little concerned the committee goes too soon too fast," he
told reporters. "I've gone along with a gradual pace of increases so far. What I
don't want is aggressive, fast rate increases that are not tied to incoming data
surprising to the upside." 
     "We need to have data that supports that kind of rate hike plan," he said. 
     Bullard has for months held the view that interest rates should stay about
where they are over the medium term, in contrast to the Federal Open Market
Committee's projection of three rate hikes this year and more in 2019 and 2020.
He added Monday that it is possible the recent tax reform could "light a fire"
under business investment this year and next, eventually feeding into higher
productivity and wages. 
     On the other hand, companies have had cash on hand for a long time, he
noted. 
     "I don't think I have to get out in front of this process. Let's see if
this investment boom happens. I'm perfectly happy to react to this data, with
inflation as low as it is," he said. 
     Commenting on the recent stock sell-off, Bullard said it was "relatively
benign" because it did not seem to be associated with a reassessment of growth
prospects or risks globally.  
     With the U.S. economy in good shape, it's a good time to think about longer
run issues such as revamping the monetary policy framework in light of low real
interest rates, Bullard said. But he cautioned, any changes to the framework
would require buy in from a whole spectrum of stakeholders. 
     If the United States changes its policy framework, it could set off changes
all around the world, he said. This should be done "very carefully and very
slowly."
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com
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