September 29, 2022 11:32 GMT
- The CFIB small business 12-month outlook hit fresh cycle lows of 52.5 (-1pt) in Sept as it reversed August’s tick higher. Excluding pandemic depths, it’s just 0.2pts above 2016 lows and before that last seen in 2009.
- Year ahead price expectations cooled further to 4.0% (peak 4.9%) whilst wage plans stabilised at 3.1% (peak 3.6%), but both clearly remain historically elevated.
- Near-term job plans show 19% of respondents expecting layoffs, the highest since January and starting to poke above pre-pandemic averages.
- Despite this, GoCs see further underperformance to Tsys today, including with 2YY +6.5bps vs 5bp Tsys, 5YY +12bp vs +9bp Tsys in retracement of yesterday's rally, with GDP prints for both countries in an hour.
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